I suggest that you familiarize yourself with the previously posted materials on the Starlink (SL) project:
‣ Part 20. Internal structure of the SL terminal ‣ Part 21. SL and polarization problems ‣ Part 22. Problems of electromagnetic compatibility with other satellites. ‣ Part 23. Interim results of the RDOF auction ‣ Part 24. Laser Channels -2 ‣ Part 25. EPFD ‣ Part 26. First results. Part one - positive
So, part two - Problems and Difficulties . The first Part - about achievements and successes - is here
1) Let's start with the main problem in my opinion, although the least provable.
SpaceX does not publish the number of subscribers taking part in beta testing. The only information is available from the beginning of February 2021 in the presentation for the FSS - "more than 10,000 Subscribers".
Logically, having 700,000 applications, the right to install 1 million terminals in the United States and a contract for the production of 1 million terminals, production should be within the limits: if the contract is for 1 year, then 80,000 terminals per month, if for 2 years (well, this is of course very long) - then 40,000 terminals. And in these one and a half to two months in 2021, SpaceX could receive and send about 50,000 terminals. At the same time, observations of reddit indicate that the rate of mailing is practically not growing, there is no boom of happy newcomers at a rate of 1000 per day (or even 100) with joyful shouts “Here is my Disha! Thank you Elon for our happy life! "
At the same time, new cells / addresses are constantly appearing - the service provision area in the United States is growing.
My interpretation of this is that there is a shortage of terminals and either the presence of a bottleneck in their production (this can be like an unworked assembly / soldering technology - there is a very dense arrangement of various layers and, as a result, there is a lot of scrap at the output), or a banal shortage of some elements and materials ... I recently came across an article on the electronic crisis due to supply chain disruptions from China and Europe related to COVID. Considering the narrow specialization of production and the huge cooperation of supply in this industry, problems with the supply of components for MicroElectronics may well be the reason for the low level of production of terminals. The problem is not critical, but it is definitely a loss of tens, and maybe hundreds of thousands of dollars, because the demand for Starlink services in the United States is now very high.
Here's a typical conversation on reddit:
, 99 500 . 2-3 .https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/md4cu2/how_long_have_you_all_waited_for_this_after_you/
, … 26000, , , . ORD-559 000- 65231-2
— ord-100999. - .
2) But THIS is already a visible problem, and it can theoretically be solved. Her name is service instability.
Now the subscriber's access speed ranges from ten Mbit to hundreds (and regardless of the needs and wishes of the subscriber). In my opinion, many of them will be satisfied with a service with stable 50 Mbps than the one that is now 200, and in a minute 20 ... I
quote from Reddit:
“It is very different. I had 200 yesterday and 16 this morning. Currently 70. "
3) Network interruptions and packet loss.
I'll just give you how many discussions on this topic:
As I understand it, not only in case of LOSS OF CONNECTION, it is sometimes the loss of packets in the working channel.
From this, Starlink subscribers are now beginning to reinvent the wheel and reserve Starlink with a land-based expensive and slow but reliable channel:
I have purchased a Speedify subscription. Great solution for me. I got my sanity back. I could no longer endure the "torture" when Dishi dropped the satellite every time. Speedify has a special 50% discount for the next few weeks if you use coupon code SPEEDIFY11. I paid $ 56 for 3 years of unlimited service. This was the best deal for me if I have been using it for the past 5 months. Looks like I'll do it.www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/md4wwt/resorted_to_speedify
4) It looks like the first problems with overloading Starlink cells, where there are many subscribers
05 03 2021 Beta Tester Patient-Access95 I use Starlink from 6 am to 6pm (work), Stable, 15 seconds of Beta downtime 100 + Mbps speeds., I then switch to DSL. (7Mbps), stable, as Starlink is usually between 3-9Mbps unstable (zero obstructions) during the late evenings hours due to congestion in my cell.https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/lyqz65/this_might_have_some_relevant_information_as_to/
In general, the Starlink satellite bandwidth problem is very acute, especially in the context of the RDOF competition, competitors argue that SpaceX does not physically have the bandwidth to give each subscriber who will be connected under the RDOF program the promised 100 Mbit. And here, unlike ordinary subscribers and the practice of operators, it is no longer possible to talk about the oversubscription ratio and service of the best efforts level, etc. - this is federal taxpayers' money and the FCC will demand from the provider a 100% guarantee that it will fulfill the requirements of the competition.
The first refuseniks also appeared, what our operators call churn
Unfortunately Dishy has to go back. Cancelling the service was simple enough, but nowhere can I find where to send the hardware back too, or whether or not an RA is required. I'm trying to make the 30 day window for full refund, but Starlink isn't making it easy. I've checked all the support pages, and put it in a specific support question, but I'm coming up with nothing. I suppose it's staring me in the face somewhere but I don't see it. Anyone have any info?so far, of course, this is an absolute rarity ...
5) Of the little things, we note the inconvenient design of the terminal (which is supplied with a cable that cannot be disconnected and cannot be screwed on the connectors itself) requiring that a hole with a diameter of 25 mm be drilled in the wall in order to insert the connector. Given that the diameter of the cable itself is no more than 8 mm
I wish the cymbal had a short wire that could be disconnected from the 100 feet of PoE wire. I spent a lot of time and effort to lay the wire to my office, going through the attic down the wall to connect
For little things, Reddit mentions the not always correct operation of the smartphone application, which determines the presence / absence of visibility to the satellite, and the long wait for a response from technical support (as I understand it, they cannot call, just write an e-mail or on the website). But this can be safely attributed to childhood diseases of the initial stage of the service.
6) Now about external problems.
The main problem today is the lack of FCC permission to change altitude from 1100 km to 550 km for the remaining 3000+ satellites that make up the Ku / Ka band constellation. Let me remind you that now the FCC permission is only for 1584 satellites in an orbit with an inclination of 53 degrees. Permissions for changing the orbit of other satellites (and, accordingly, the right to launch into polar orbit) - NO. The first 10 satellites were launched on it with the individual permission of the FCC. Good for experimentation, but not for service deployment. At the same time, out of 1584 satellites of the first phase, it remains to launch a maximum of another 240, that is, 4 launches. In fact, one month, if we take March 2021 as a sample, and then what?
At the same time, we have a change in the head of the FCC, a change of administrations, and ...
7) An intensified struggle against SpaceX at the administrative level, where old space firms, satellite providers HughesNet and Viasat, classic telecom operators, competitors like OneWeb and Kuiper are acting as a united front, but from different directions, throwing various petitions, complaints, slander and objections to the FSS ... And all of them must be considered, analyzed and answered by the FCC, often involving external experts who, in theory, should be neutral, but where to get them from. An independent expert has to feed somewhere, that is, he still worked for someone, and he has some personal likes / dislikes.
8) I would like to note that to this day there is no more or less unambiguous, public example of a business plan for the Starlink project, according to which this business will be able to “recapture” their investments for investors and make a profit. The Morgan Stanley report available online and the analysis of the numbers and premises on which it is based only raise additional doubts.
As well as SpaceX's lack of a position on how to work in markets that differ in the rules of the game from the markets of the United States and other conditionally democratic countries with a market economy, of which there are now about 15 (if we take the EU as 1). What to do with Africa and Southeast Asia, where revenues will clearly not allow you to pay $ 500 for the terminal.
In conclusion, I repeat once again that this is an analysis for March 31, 2021. After 6 months, things may be different. But today, in my opinion, the picture looks exactly like this: disasters - NO, problems and difficulties - THERE are.