Estimates are completely out of touch with fundamental analysis, multiples are at historic highs, the rate of issue of securities is off the charts - and all this is accompanied by insanely speculative behavior of investors. A big crisis is inevitable.
I want to start my story with the seemingly obvious, but today not everyone understands why the actions appeared. So, a share is a share in a company. Why do you need a share in a company? In order to have some of her profits. That is why the real value of a share is determined by the current and future profit of the issuing company, which is transferred to the shareholder in the form of dividends.
Some companies pay dividends on a quarterly basis, others - annually, and there are those that have not shared their net profit with their shareholders for more than a decade. At the end of the last century, this was a rarity, but with the advent of the Internet, the speed of business scaling increased by an order of magnitude, and technology companies made it a rule to reinvest all net profit in development so that in the future there would be even more dividends.
Again, the value of any stock is provided only by its real or potential dividend yield. However, the value is not equal to the value and the actual price of a share is always speculative. This is explained by the fact that all people have different expectations from the future profit of the company, and besides, each person is irrational by nature.
Would you buy a stake in a company that will pay off 30 years without the opportunity to sell it? I’m sure not. But if this share has been resold hundreds of times over the past month and its price has risen noticeably, there is a desire to speculate on its value. That is, initially someone acted irrationally and started the flywheel. The crowd is exposed to the lemming effect, and in such a situation, real value ceases to interest the market. This creates an economic bubble.
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, P/E . , 2018 83% , IPO, — , 2000 . .
NIO, NYSE, 25 . 43 , $70 ! NIO TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) $999 $1,8 . 40 !
XPeng. , NIO. $520 $420 $23 . P/S 44.
IPO AirBnB. $31 , $18 . AirBnB $100 . : , - , , 5 .
, - AirBnB Booking Holdings Marriott, 85 40 . , IPO, .
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, ? Clubhouse - Clubhouse Media Group 100%. , . Signal.
, 8 . , «How the Little Guy Is Fueling the Stock Market’s Wild Ride» Barron's.
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