Vyacheslav Ermolin, January 6, 2021.
Continuation of forecasts of launch programs for the 21st year.
Part 1: Forecast for 2021. SpaceX. Orbital launches.
Part 2: Forecast for 2021. USA. Orbital launches.
The US competitor for the first place in launches is China. It lost to the US this year, but China's space program is also in a phase of strong growth (as is the US). I am making the assessment according to the highest expectations and realistic. Overall assessment for China.
The maximum number of orbital launches in China in 2021 is 80! Based on published manifestos, company statements and past experience.
My prediction for 2021 is that China will make 45 (plus or minus 3) orbital launch attempts in five accidents. Second place for 2021.
By launching systems and launching companies:
Fourth generation rockets: CZ-5, CZ-6 and CZ-7. Expected - more than 20. My forecast - 12. An accident is possible.
Third generation missiles: CZ-2, CZ-3 and CZ-4. Expected - 17. My forecast - 11. An accident is possible.
Light class missile: CZ-11. Expected - 9. My prognosis - 5. Private rockets: Expected - 23. My prognosis - 12.
Declared payloads without LV indication: Expected - 13. My forecast - 5.
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