Vyacheslav Ermolin, January 5, 2021.
Continuation of forecasts of launch programs for the 21st year.
Part 1: Forecast for 2021. SpaceX. Orbital launches.
The US launch program consists of great SpaceX and everyone else - old space firms and new space "privateers". Startups and oldies. "NewSpace" & "OldSpace". I will make the assessment according to the highest expectations and realistic. General estimate for the United States.
The maximum number of US orbital launches in 2021 is 90! Based on published manifestos and company statements.
2021 — 56 (- 3) .
:
SpaceX (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, SS): 41. — 26. .
Rocket Lab (Electron): 12. — 7. .
ULA (Atlas 5, Dekta IV, Vulcan): — 11. — 8.
Virgin Orbit (LauncherOne): — 6. — 3.
Astra (Rocket 3 4): — 4. — 2. .
: — 9. — 7.
ABL (RS1) Firefly (Alpha): — 7. — 3. .
() . 90 — ( Wiki 21- 87 ). , , .
20- (80), 44.
( ) . . , , , (LauncherOne, Firefly Alpha, Rocket 3.3 (Astra), RS1 ( ABL), Rocket 4.0 (Astra), Vulcan-VC2S, Super Heavy/Starship, New Glenn, Terran-1, Ravn X (Aevum), SLS Block 1/iCPS). NSSL-2 () -, .
22- . . 11 — ! .
Links:
NSF. US Launch Manifesto 2021 - 80 launches.
Wiki. Launch Manifesto 2021 (total) - 87 launches.
NSF. Forum topic with forecasts for the 21st year. (translation into Russian).
High definition infographics.