The inevitable future, or why the electric / hybrid is doomed to success

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Every time you stand at a traffic light or in a traffic jam, you think why I am not driving an electric car or a hybrid (hereinafter, an electric car will also mean a hybrid), because how much fuel is practically wasted, and when you try an electric car and compare it with a gasoline car, then you make a choice in the direction of the train. Breathing clean air is much more pleasant than exhaust gases.



We will analyze the situation with cars, based on personal experience of owning both a gasoline car and an electric one, draw conclusions as objectively as possible.



Historically, the first cars , both with an internal combustion engine and electric traction, appeared at about the same time, but the main thing is that it was the car with an internal combustion engine that became widespread. The fact is that the main disadvantage of an electric vehicle is the battery, which even in our time remains large, heavy and expensive, while providing a relatively short travel distance on a single charge. Internal combustion engines were more versatile, fuel could be taken in large quantities with you, it was cheap, at the beginning of the era of the automobile there was an abundance of oil, and there were very few cars, they did not pose significant environmental problems.



The versatility of the internal combustion engine was also in the possibility of its use in military equipment, ships and aircraft, one of the main roles was played by world wars, in which a large amount of equipment, powerful and universal, was required, no one would look for an outlet for a tank. After the end of the war, factories engaged in the production of military equipment were reoriented to the production of civilian equipment, including cars, and the use of a ready-made and universal internal combustion engine became the simplest solution.



Today there are about 1 billion cars in the world, most of them with an internal combustion engine powered by gasoline, diesel, gas, etc. As the main raw material for the production of fuel for cars, oil is becoming an increasingly expensive resource. Let us briefly analyze the cost of 100 km of track on gasoline and on electricity, on average, let's take a consumption of 8 liters. per 100 km, the cost is 45 rubles. per liter, we get 360 rubles. On an electric car, an average of 1 kilowatt can drive even 7 km, for 100 km. it will take 14 kilowatts, for example, for 4 rubles, we get 56 rubles. The difference is 360/56 = 6, six times. Under certain conditions, with economical city driving, the difference can reach up to 10 times. (calculation is carried out without using a stove or air conditioner.



As for the highway, the situation here changes in the other direction, an electric car shows a higher consumption, and a gasoline car is more economical, so the difference can be reduced, and if we theoretically refuel on fast paid charges, then the cost is 100 km. the path on an electric car can be equal to that of a gasoline car.



Considering the real situation in Russia, the lack of fast charging on the highways between cities, most people use an electric car only in urban conditions or at relatively short distances within 100-200 km. Moreover, according to statistics, the average daily mileage of an average motorist is about 50 km.



All this tells us that the use of an electric car for daily trips over short distances is more profitable than a car on gasoline.



But there are a number of problems.



  • An electric car needs charging, if you live in your house or you have a garage, you can easily make an outlet and charge the car at home, but if you live in an apartment and you have nowhere to charge your car, then there are difficulties, charging for There are very few electric vehicles in Russia.
  • Sooner or later, you will need to make a long trip and one charge will not be enough, therefore, it becomes necessary to maintain two cars, gasoline and electric, which requires two insurances, two sets of rubber and a place to store these cars. The purchase of a second car requires additional finance.
  • , 20-30%, , , 50% . ( ).


So, what we see is that there is practically no infrastructure for electric vehicles in Russia, the cost of an electric car, as well as the need to maintain two cars, is still high, so many people look at hybrid cars, since it is more versatile, but the consumption of a hybrid car is on average about 3 -4 liters per 100 km, which indicates a difference of only two times compared to a gasoline car, and the cost of a hybrid car is usually higher than a gasoline analogue, so many people decide that it is better to just leave their gasoline car or convert it to gas fuel, but this already a separate topic.



It turns out that an electric car for the majority of Russians can be the second car in the family, provided that it is possible to charge it and there is a budget and a desire to maintain two cars. This is certainly sobering, but saving up to 10 times on fuel and maintenance of the electric car itself, which requires much lower financial costs, looks very attractive. For example, replacing 1.5 liters of oil in a Nissan Lift every 30 thousand, according to the regulations (if you wish, once every 40 thousand), speaks of the efficiency of electric transport by reducing operating costs for maintenance. Let's calculate, if you change the oil on a gasoline car every 15 thousand, with an oil filter (candles, a gasoline filter, maintenance of a gearbox) will approximately cost from 5-10 thousand rubles, then, knowing that 56 rubles. we drive 100 km in an electric car. it will turn outthat in the amount of 5000 rubles we will drive 8900 km. the way, if the TO costs 10 thousand rubles, then we will drive twice as much 17800 km. It turns out that an amount equal to the mileage on an electric car for several months is spent on maintenance of a gasoline car, in my experience 3-6 months.



Let's see what projects of electric transport were or are in our country, and indeed they are, and not one, but at the moment there is not a single mass-produced electric vehicle or even a hybrid in our country. I know the closed project Yo-mobile, the Ellada electric car based on the viburnum lada and the new projects Zeta and Kama, which are planned to be released in the coming years, we will analyze them.



- Yo-mobilegood project from 2010, pure hybrid car, no storage battery, but with an internal combustion engine that only works as a generator to generate electricity for electric motors. The project was widely advertised, the price was initially set at about 500 thousand rubles, fuel consumption was about 2-3 liters, and it could be natural gas methane, supercapacitors were provided in the design for efficient energy recovery, which by the way can be borrowed in modern electric vehicles ... The project was closed in 2014, apparently it was planned to buy American equipment to create a composite car body, but something went wrong, and it's a pity if the car was released in 2014, now, it would have been brought to mind. debugged and might have got a built-in battery for driving as an electric car.



In general, what can we conclude, the car should be a real project and implemented on schedule, use as many domestic parts as possible, produced in Russia.



- Ellada (2012-2013), the project is little known, it was not widely presented to the public, the car was made on the basis of Kalina's frets, while the cost of Ellada was about 1 million rubles, there are not so many people who would like to buy such a car at such a price , while. The car was not sold at retail, but was sold in bulk for large customers, which, in my opinion, is wrong, about 100 cars were produced.



I think the main problem was the high price of a car at a relatively low rate, besides, if such a car got into retail car dealerships, it seems to me that they would be dismantled even in the first year. It was desirable to conduct open test drives, show it on television, etc. tell as many people as possible about it.



- New projects Zeta and Kama , which are just preparing for release, and I hope we will see them after all, from the known it can be concluded that these will be small compact cars, perhaps even they will fall into the L category, costing from 500 thousand rubles. rub. with a battery for 200-500 km, depending on the configuration.



Such a car is ideal for various delivery services, taxis, possibly car sharing. For home use, most likely it will still be a second car.

I can wish these projects success, I wish to bring the shown samples to real production, and prepare for the production of models equivalent to cars of category A or B, with all security systems, crash tests, etc.



Let's summarize what kind of car is needed for Russia in the current conditions so that it could become a people's electric car.



1. It is desirable that the car should cost up to 1 million rubles, with a battery for at least 200 km. mileage, with the ability to charge from a home outlet.



2. Optionally, such a car must have a small internal combustion engine, at least from an ordinary scooter of 50-100 cubic meters, such a small and inexpensive engine will work as a generator to recharge the battery, and its heat can be used to heat the passenger compartment, in the northern latitudes, this is an urgent issue, thus, two important problems are being solved: an unlimited travel distance will appear, because it will be possible to refuel at any gas station, and the car will not waste energy on heating in winter, which will further increase the car's mileage on one charge.

A similar system is used in the BMW i3 , only the cost of this car is very high.



The purpose of such an engine is not 100% energy coverage, it will be enough to drive at a low speed of 30-40 km, with minimal energy consumption or with stops for recharging, in any case this will ensure that you reach your destination and do not have to call a tow truck or a friend with a cable.



3. It is necessary to strive for the release of a full-fledged car, spacious enough inside, so that 4 people can feel comfortable and safe in it, pay attention to new functions and capabilities, try to keep up with the times.



It is desirable that the electric car is not inferior to modern models of AvtoVAZ, Grant, Vesta or Ixrei.



4. Pay attention to optimization, ie. make the car as light as possible, for example doors, hood and as many parts as possible made of plastic, composites, perhaps adding stiffeners to them to increase protection in collisions. Consider installing supercapacitors for more efficient energy recovery, and this will also save the battery from peak loads that occur during acceleration and deceleration, but this is optional.



What is required from the state, in fact, is not so much, it is enough to install fast charging stations at a distance of 50-100 km. from each other, they can be installed at already existing gas stations, this will be enough for a trip to any distance. Since charging takes a long time, about 30 minutes or more, it will be pleasant to spend this time with a cup of coffee or a snack at a roadside cafe, right at the gas station, which will be an additional profit for them.



What awaits us in the near future, the situation with electric vehicles is very similar to the situation in the early 90s with foreign cars in our country, when domestic cars drove almost everywhere and foreign cars brought from Europe or Japan began to appear, usually supported, and after 20 For 30 years, domestically produced cars have become a rarity on our roads, moreover, most foreign cars are produced (assembled) in Russia, and Avtovaz produces cars in cooperation with Renault Nissan. In 20-30 years we will see the same influx of electric vehicles and hybrids, they will be familiar to us ..



Criticism of electric vehicles.



The problem of recycling batteries can be solved, just like ordinary batteries and batteries, spent batteries can even be used without recycling, for example, in home networks in conjunction with solar panels and wind turbines, but that's another story.



It is worth noting the degradation factor of the battery, i.e. An electric car travels less on a single charge, it turns out that it just needs to be charged more often, while the charge consumption per kilometer of travel remains the same, i.e. efficiency is not lost, the battery just takes less charge. Degradation of different types of batteries occurs at different rates, and also depends on the operating conditions, however, this factor must be taken into account.



Loss of power reserve at low temperatures or when using a stove, air conditioner. Yes, there is such a problem, although it is not critical and depends on the geography of the car's use. It is possible to install autonomous heaters.



Electricity is generated by burning coal or gas, but we also get a lot of energy from nuclear power plants or hydroelectric power plants, and more and more wind parks and solar power plants appear.



Lithium alone is not enough for everyone, it is a rather rare and expensive metal, but there are other types of batteries that do not use lithium, now there are already developments of graphene batteries or the use of hydrogen.



The range on one charge for the latest electric vehicles is approaching 500 km, and the fast charging time is reduced, the car can be charged up to 80% in half an hour. According to the manufacturers' promises, electric vehicles with a mileage of more than 1000 km may appear in the near future. on one charge.



And so what awaits us in the near future, we will continue to use oil and gas as fuel for cars, the transition to electric transport will be smooth for decades, most likely by 2050, electric cars and hybrids will become familiar and more affordable transport.



It is already necessary to develop a fast charging network, especially on federal highways; such stations for electric vehicles could be installed at regular gas stations. In cities in residential areas in parking lots, create more conventional outlets and motivate owners to charge at night, night charges can not only equalize the load on the power grid, but also prevent overload in the daytime.



It is necessary to support domestic projects for the creation of electric vehicles or hybrids, and to prevent their failure, by analogy with the -mobile, it is important to develop this direction in order to keep up with other countries.



Interesting.



There are about 24,000 charging stations in Germany .

Chargers for electric vehicles will appear at all gas stations in Germany

Only EVs by 2025: Norway Moving Towards Electricity Plan

, Advantages and Disadvantages, Habr article



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