What's wrong with coronavirus statistics?

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Actually, it is known what is wrong with it - it is radically inconsistent with the excess mortality rates (if we talk about Russia).



But here we are talking about something else - that the provided indicators are completely uncomfortable for analysis and even contribute to distorting the real picture of the epidemic.



If I want to estimate the risk of moving from region A to region B, then I would need to divide the absolute numbers (commonly reported) by the population of the regions.



Or - the increase in the number of infected as a percentage, which takes into account the entire history of the pandemic. If at the beginning of the process 100 people with 1000 people accumulated means 10% growth per day, then in the future 1000 infected per day with a total number of infections of 100,000 form only 1%, but the intensity of infections did not decrease by 10 times, but increased!



Also with mortality - if you calculate it for the entire period of the pandemic, then the current situation is completely incomprehensible.



Tired of thinking like β€œyesterday's big, but five each ...”, I created a website RusCovid.com .



Let me tell you briefly about the specific indicators provided on the site (the technique is described in detail in the corresponding section).



For cases, this is an increase in the number of active cases (%) and the number of cases in the last week per 1 million inhabitants of the region. In addition, the graph displays the daily change in the number of active cases, both absolute and per million population.



For those who recovered - the percentage of recovered from the number of active cases.



For deaths - the total number of deaths per million, the number of deaths in 7 days per million, as well as mortality in closed and presumably open cases.



When comparing weekly deaths per million with international statistics, then you can see that in some regions of Russia the situation is close to world anti-records.



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It's sad to remind you of this, but the real numbers are probably many times higher.



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