You can't manage what you can't imagine.
This also applies to our future.
So isn't it worth paying attention not only to modeling the future, but also to our possibilities of interpreting the results obtained?
Where do the boundaries of our ability to fantasize and imagine? And - most importantly - can we offer any meaningful tool for measuring them? ..
About method
At first glance, the problem seems insoluble - after all, human fantasy is practically limitless.
But if we look at science fiction literature, we find that we cannot say that each book differs from every other that much. We inevitably find patterns, repetitions, genre boundaries - and even complain that "the authors have written themselves out and cannot come up with anything new."
This gives us an important sign - no, the fantasies reaching public space are not limitless. If we are talking about sustainable systems of the future, then we will stumble upon some kind of framework, so far intuitively.
The question is - can you offer a tool to analyze them?
The concept of metaphorical systems
In 1980 J. Lakoff and M. Johnson published The Metaphors We Live By. It served as one of the foundations for a new scientific direction - cognitive linguistics, which analyzes the relationship between language and its perception by a person (conceptualization, categorization, etc.).
One of the basic assumptions expressed in the book was the following - we think in linguistic metaphors; in the process of thinking we use language concepts . We cannot think in isolation from language, it directs our thinking.
In addition, metaphors have two important features: their use highlights some properties of real objects, and simultaneously darkens others.
Let's take object X as an example. It can be denoted as:
- Table
- 10 kg of wood
- -
- , 3000$ ..
Each name of a given object X will "highlight" a number of its properties. "Table" indicates that you can sit behind X. “10 kg of wood” means that it can be burned - but at the same time it will take away from our focus the functionality of the table - after all, the same can be a cabinet, bars or logs. The wording "Auction lot ..." will focus on the exchange value of this object, but ignore the rest of its features.
So, thinking about different kinds of objects and using words to denote them, we inevitably simplify reality.
However, metaphors and descriptions for any object can be invented an unprecedented amount - in fact, in the book "Metaphors We Live By" this is emphasized. How can you analyze them?
To solve this problem, we would like to propose a new conceptmetaphorical system . The idea is simple - as a rule, metaphors are not created regardless of the context; they are already woven into some system of other complementary concepts.
For example:
- The "table" is among the household items along with the "chair", "wardrobe", etc.
- "10 kg of wood" are among the materials such as "5 kg of steel", "2 kg of porcelain", etc.
- "Auction lot sold for $ 3000" is among other objects for sale such as "Auction lot for $ 2000", possibly - "Product from a store for $ 100", etc.
If we take for analysis not individual metaphors with which a person thinks, but metaphors built into ready-made systems, then we will find that there are not so many stable systems of such metaphors , which means that they can be isolated and analyzed.
In this case, it can be assumed that similar metaphorical systems will be isomorphic (i.e., similar in the sense of graphs), although their vertices (i.e., specific concepts) may differ. For example, it is not so important what we are fighting for in the "military metaphorical system" - for tiberium, helium-3, quadrinix or terrestrial planets. It is important that in any case there will be "ours", "strangers" and "resource" that cannot be divided - although in each particular case they may be called differently.
Next, we will move on to highlighting metaphorical systems in fiction, but for those who are interested in delving into their theoretical foundations from the point of view of psychology, we recommend the article "Metaphorical systems: to the analysis of" psychological maps of the area "
To the analysis of fiction
There is a lot of science fiction and it is multifaceted - even if we simplify its interpretation. Therefore, we need to focus on one thing.
Since we are interested in the image of the future and our possibilities for presenting it, we will confine ourselves to considering the system of the future society and its goals .
This is a very important point.
First, not so many sustainable systems of society have been invented, which means that such an analysis will be possible.
Secondly, we reserve the right to ignore some of the literature that is not built around the systems of the future, but around the story of the protagonist.... Such types of stories, in particular, were described by Campbell in the book "The Thousand Faced Hero" - stories of a hero's challenge, trials, etc. An important feature of such stories is that, in the name of awakening emotions and focusing on the main character, they allow themselves quite freely to deal with his surroundings. It is not systemic, it is "crumbly" and adjusts to the character, sometimes manifesting what is called "Mary Sue" (that is, the unrealistic possession of the hero enough strength to solve any problem) or "a piano in the bushes" (that is non-systemic situations, often designed to help the hero or create emotional tension). So, we plan to ignore such things in this study.
There are certainly many ways to categorize metaphorical systems. Further, we will offer some fairly simple categorization of 4 types, but we emphasize that it is only one of the possible and other researchers may suggest a different division.
In each type, we will cover several things:
- General concept
- Key metaphors. This element is important for verification - referring to an arbitrary work, if we find concepts that correspond to these metaphors, we can say that it considers the future within the framework of this metaphorical system.
- Examples - whenever possible, from futurological forecasts, and from science fiction literature.
- Approximate advantages and disadvantages of such a consideration of the future
- The image of an ideal future within this system
Now let's move on to direct analysis.
1. Geopolitics (military system)
Description
Geopolitics is a metaphorical system within which processes occurring in the future can be reduced to a battle for control over certain limited resources, the distribution of which cannot be agreed upon ; At the same time, it is especially emphasized that there can be no “fair” solution to the problems of resource control and the parties will use forceful methods to seize or protect such resources.
Note: "war" and "politics" are very similar from this point of view. We turn the classical definition of Clausewitz "War is the continuation of politics by other (namely, violent) means" and we get that "Politics is the continuation of war in other, non-violent ways." In the case of politics, it will be a question of control over a limited resource, although the struggle may not be limited to forceful methods.
Basic Metaphors
Geopolitics looks at society in terms of forces, influence, and wars over resources. In this sense, it implicitly relies on such a basic cultural division as “friend or foe”. "Own" deserves good, "stranger" deserves evil, or at least neglect, ignorance.
Examples of concepts that can be reduced to a geopolitical metaphorical system in our understanding
There are many examples from science fiction - the war for an imaginary tiberium, helium-3, hypertransition nodal points (for example, Barrayar's "The Vorkosigan Saga"), inhabited planets (for example, Tarmashev "The Ancient"), etc.
Modern futurologists have this concept in cases:
- Energy and energy competition concepts (exhaustible, limited)
- Simplified Marxist concepts that place the concept of "class struggle" in the center (the struggle for control over the means of production, in our opinion, are only part of the original Marxist assumptions)
Advantages
The concept of geopolitics constantly "highlights" an important thing - different people have different interests in the same place . It is relatively universal - it can reflect conflicts in the family (for space or money), in public associations or states (status, control over resources, etc.). It is very, very understandable - hardly anyone at least once did not join the fight for what is important to him.
Geopolitics is contrasted with liberal economics - the idea that the market itself can regulate and put everything in its place, and that everything can peacefully produce and exchange resources. De facto, not all resources can be purchased on the free market, and control over them is carried out politically, on the basis of government orders and regulation. The purpose of this is very simple - to prevent "outsiders" from accessing critical resources, to get leverage on them.
Sometimes the use of force is the last way to defend justice - and in this sense, the basic metaphors of the interaction of subjects, used in geopolitical concepts, are inherent in humans and cannot be removed.
disadvantages
War has existed for almost as long as human communities; however, military action has never led to major improvements in the life of society. War as the use of force to gain influence only contributes to the redistribution of resources, but not in any way forward in the historical sense.
This concept can provide guidelines for actions on a scale of 10 to 50 years, but not for 100-200 years, since it is extremely difficult to imagine humanity that has been exclusively engaged in the division of resources for so long.
Ideal concept of the future A
multipolar world , ideally using the system of international law and agreements to transfer all conflicts to the political plane and prevent the direct use of force.
In theory, another option is also possible, in which we are not completely sure - the concept of an empire with the division of competing branches of power , with the monopolization of the idea of violence by the state and the transfer of conflicts to the judicial / bureaucratic plane.
2. Liberal market economy
Description
Liberal market economy - a system in which people are considered to achieve the most optimal state (happiness), satisfying their own needs through the exchange of the values they produce in the market.
Basic metaphors A
liberal market economy considers all processes in terms of personal production, personal needs, personal consumption, freedom of agreement and freedom of exchange of values within the framework of the market mechanism... It implicitly relies on the model of an "economic man" who tries to maximize his profits. Also, its important element is the idea of automatic self-regulation (self-organization) of the market, which encourages individual subjects to optimize production out of personal interests, which leads to the welfare of society as a whole.
In contrast to the military / geopolitical system, this is dominated by the idea not of limited resources, but of the ability for each entity to effectively produce a certain class of resources for further exchange. There is no critical limited resource (land, energy, etc.) in this concept.
Examples of Concepts The
liberal market economy is currently mainstream - a generally accepted concept against which all others are compared.
In fiction, this concept is often encountered in the case of the main character's ordinary, non-epic adventures. The hero can move around the planet or planets, look for fellow travelers and transport goods with them (for example, the series "Firefly", etc.). In this case, as usually occurs extrapolation existing markets interplanetary system / global level (trade unique spare parts for R2-D2 etc.)
Note: a difficult point that is not included in this concept, but necessary in practice and is the subject of constant controversy is the concept of public goods that are supported by the state: the army, police, social programs, etc. Accordingly, there are concepts that add these elements to the concept of a market economy , as important (concepts of the liberal-socialist type), or those that consider them as secondary (concepts tending to conservatism).
Benefits
The metaphor of free production and exchange has a significant advantage over the metaphor of force (war) as a way of allocating resources. This approach emphasizes that, first of all, benefits are the result of the use of human skills and labor, and not at all the control of certain locations / benefits. Accordingly, this concept focuses on the possibility of increasing the efficiency of each person individually - which leads both to an increase in the remuneration of this person and to the benefit of society as a whole.
To reiterate: here we describe the ideal advantage of the concept, i.e. something that is positioned, but not necessarily implemented. In particular, a necessary condition for the realization of an ideal situation within the framework of this concept is a number of freedoms:
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However, in the modern world there are a huge number of areas of activity that have most of these freedoms - which leads to a fairly high efficiency of the described concept.
Disadvantages
Until recently, this concept seemed to be the final solution to all the problems of mankind - in particular, this was the point of view held by F. Fukuyama in the book "The End of History and the Last Man." However, the practice of the past 15 years has shown that this concept fails when applied on a global scale. The reasons for this are difficult to fully establish, but the following are often cited:
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- The need to consolidate capital and the class struggle is an argument often made by followers of Marx. Here, the main problem is the need to create giant industries / corporations in order to increase labor efficiency due to economies of scale, as well as the associated growing alienation of labor, the lack of creativity in it - which leads to both dissatisfaction of psychological needs and a lack of freedom to start one's own business.
One way or another, while the "pure" implementation of this concept in the real world leads to a number of significant problems, which have to be corrected by non-market measures.
Ideal concept of the future A
free market , possibly a global one, with a large number of competitors and easy entry / exit to it.
3. Technological explosion
Description
Technological explosion is a concept within which it is believed that the most significant changes in the life of mankind occur with the development of natural sciences and the associated creation and implementation of new technologies, for the use of which it is enough to purchase a thing / object that includes this technology. Understanding of the essence of technology is completely optional (we will need this remark on the "materiality" of technologies later).
The key value here is a scientific discovery and its technological implementation.An
alternative for this name could be the term technological singularity- the concept that with the discovery of a certain technology, the life of mankind will change dramatically; so much so that the principles of its further existence for us, modern people, are extremely difficult to even imagine - which means that discussions about politics and economics are secondary. We will consider this concept as a more radical version of the technological explosion.
Basic metaphors
In the concept of a technological explosion, everything is considered from the point of view of scientific discoveries, technology, technology implementation... This concept implicitly rests on the idea that everything rests on the human skill of inventing and then distributing their invention. It can also be said that this concept is based on an invention that arises as a result of the thinking of an individual / group of people / long mass research, as well as the process of its dissemination.
Also, due to the specifics of the field and its development, discussions often arise about official and unofficial science .
Examples of concepts
Generally, proponents of the technological explosion concept try to guess which technology will be the key to changing human life. Accordingly, most often there are variations of this concept with an emphasis on one technology or another, which gives rise to a rather large variety of them.
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In general, I think that most of the optimistic programmers of Habrovka would dream of devoting their lives to the development of such a key technology. And this is, in a sense, wonderful.
Benefits
Serious "pro" for this concept is the example of technological development in the 20th and 21st centuries. During this time, the level of human life as a whole has grown significantly precisely due to inventions, development and implementation of technologies (medicines, increasing yields, automation, etc.). Discussions that further investments in science and technology will lead to an increase in the standard of living, in this sense look pretty logical.
Disadvantages
The main remarks about this concept lie in the field of psychology: individual and social.
Individual psychology notes the fact that, despite the increase in the standard of living (physiological), it is absolutely impossible to conclude that it is clearly correlated with the level of happiness. People very often spend free funds on goods they do not need in general; they also spend their free time watching television.
From the point of view of social psychology, it is noteworthy that, speaking about a variety of inventions and technologies, one can imagine their use both in a positive aspect and in a negative one. Simply put, there are pictures of a happy future using robots (free people); there are pictures of a terrible future with the use of robots (not necessarily in the style of "Terminator" - for example, the dominance of megacorporations, unemployment due to the fact that all places are occupied by machines, etc.).
In connection with the latter, it should be noted that within the framework of the concepts of "technological explosion" quite a lot (in comparison with other concepts) have been created dystopian scenarios associated with the possibility of incorrect use of technologies. These include, in particular, scenarios of a nuclear war, leaks of deadly viruses, "gray goo" (getting out of control of nanorobots), general bioprogramming of people, which can lead to the loss of their identity, etc.
Ideal vision for the future The
ideal vision for the future varies greatly depending on the choice of central technology. It can also be said that for each of the options there are different ideas about whether the society of the future will be a utopia or a dystopia, depending on the chosen social system.
Typically, you have the following options:
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4.
Description
Humanitarian transition is a concept in which it is assumed that people, having mastered this or that humanitarian knowledge (understanding of history, psychology, etc.), will be able to reach a new level of awareness of their existence and build social interactions in a new way. In particular, it is assumed that within the framework of such a new system, there will be more support for the individual, regardless of the market significance of her work, more mutual understanding, more freedom for creative activity, a higher level of self-control and responsibility.
The key value here is contact, interaction, understanding, psychological support, assistance in development in human communication.
This image of the future is extremely rare; so why are we considering it?
Next, we will summarize our concepts in a 2x2 table and note that in reality there are no “pure concepts”. There is a balance - geopolitics are always mixed with the market, they balance each other's disadvantages and advantages.
The introduction of the idea of "humanitarian transition" is connected with the need to find a balancing concept for the idea of "technological explosion". The metaphors of the technological explosion highlight what can be called "external development", development aimed at subjugating the environment and "alienated" from the human psyche. In particular, this is why many classic dystopias - Huxley's Brave New World, Zamyatin's We, and even in some aspect Orwell's 1984 - rely on significant technological advances that, alas, do not increase the subjectivity and significance of the individual. on the contrary, they suppress it, reduce it to the level of a screw in a public machine.
As a counterbalance, we want to present a concept aimed at "highlighting" the significance of emotions, psychology, human mind - and, applying such a change to humanity as a whole, we called it a humanitarian transition (including, in memory of the idea proposed by V.F. Turchin metasystem transitions)
Basic metaphors
Based on the above, we can assume that the concept of humanitarian transition is based on such things as the development of knowledge about a person, the spread of knowledge about a person, increasing the level of awareness of actions, increasing mutual understanding . I would also like to note that in such a world, participation, psychological support in the growth and Path (maturation) of another person is extremely significant , despite his mistakes (which are part of the Path).
It may also make sense to talk about the value of growing up and psychological development here .
Examples of concepts
Many socialist concepts include the idea of a humanitarian transition. There are details that distinguish different socialist concepts from each other; but perhaps this is the factor that unites them. In this sense, V.F. Turchin, a Soviet cyberneticist who later emigrated to the United States, aptly put it:
“Socialism is a religion that proclaims the Supreme Goal [1] to integrate humanity.We note right away that we do not consider the word "socialism" apt. This word has been used in too many trends and directions, and it is unlikely that it will be possible to agree on what exactly it means. Actually, Turchin's definition is also in many respects unique and does not correspond to other meanings of "socialism". Therefore, we introduce the term "humanitarian transition", which is based on the idea of free integration of people while preserving and developing their personal individuality.
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[Quoted from VF Turchin "Inertia of fear". Part 2, section "Definition of socialism"]
Separately, I would like to draw your attention to the idea of a “united friendly family”. First, of course, such a “family” is not planned to be “suffocating”, limiting the personality, as it happens in many real families and is not approved by psychology. This family is supportive, these are people who are interested in your personality simply by the fact of your existence, and not because you successfully perform certain functions, as is often the case in a market economy.
We can also add the psychological phrase “friends are the chosen family”, which embodies the idea that even if we are unlucky with family ties, we can find those who need us as a person.
I would also like to draw attention to the concepts developed within the framework of humanistic psychology (E. Fromm, A. Maslow, K. Rogers, etc.)
Currently, psychology itself does not pretend to invade futurology and have its own idea of what our future should look like; in any case, we have not come across such works. But if you look more closely, it becomes clear that within the framework of humanistic psychology, an idea is created of what a person should be - more independent, and more attentive to others, sensitive, possessing an internal locus of control to reduce the number of manipulations, etc. Extrapolating these ideas to all of humanity, we get that humanistic psychology also assumes that human development should take place within the framework of the concept of a humanitarian transition, which in this case means improving psychological health and supporting personal development.
For example, according to Erich Fromm's definition, "Love is an active interest in the life and development of the object of love." What would happen if we could help everyone use this idea due to the developed humanitarian technologies? What will the world look like then? ..
There are not too many fantastic works in this vein. Perhaps the most important is IA Efremov with the books "The Andromeda Nebula", "The Hour of the Bull" and partially "The Razor's Blade". Less - the works of the Strugatsky, and Snegov "People as Gods". Less, since these books mostly do not show a positive change in human psychology - rather, they are projections of existing, not very strong friendships into the future. The most interesting in the Strugatskys' favorite by many is "Monday begins on Saturday" - as it seems to us, precisely because, despite the difference in the points of view of the characters (Privalov, Kivrin, Cristobal) they manage to get along and support each other. The people at NIICHAVO support each other out of a common interest in research; but even more interesting are examples of Efremov in "Nebula", where people are also interested in each other's participation in sports,emotions, relationships, etc. - i.e. not only in general professional activities.
Benefits
The concept of humanitarian transition has at least several serious advantages:
- An orientation towards psychological growth and emotional closeness . Unlike, for example, the concept of a technological explosion, psychological and emotional development is at the center here. Not everyone is a programmer, and not everyone understands the joy of creativity. But the joy of maintaining connections, I hope, is familiar to many.
- Possibility of individual progress . Despite the fact that there is serious debate as to whether a forced change in the social order is necessary to achieve socialism, in the framework of some concepts of humanitarian transition (for example, psychology) progress is considered independent of the state of the surrounding world - which means that everything is in the hands of man.
- Intuitive clarity, attractiveness due to the experience of primitive socialism . A world without wars; the world of universal understanding is an old dream of mankind. It is supported by some very ancient experience - once in primitive times, the main competition for resources was not between people (the concept of geopolitics), but between people and nature (the task of survival). Accordingly, at that time, the actions of all people were not aimed at competing with each other, but at their own development, as well as mutual assistance within the tribe. There was also mutual understanding [2]. However, of course, it was all on a completely different level.
Disadvantages There are
also several serious problems with this concept:
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The ideal image of the future
It is interesting that it is rather difficult to describe the ideal image of the future in this concept, primarily because in such a future people with a completely different psychology await us; people who are hard to imagine. While other concepts believe that the human psyche as a whole is unchanged, this one considers it an object of development.
Perhaps the best example will be the images of the future, created by IA Efremov in the novels "The Andromeda Nebula" and "The Hour of the Bull" - as the author himself says, his task was precisely an attempt to show the psychology of people of the future, psychology and sociology, different from ours , modern. (In very simple terms, we can assume that this is a society of "friendship and brotherhood")
Another relatively good example, but standing a little further away, may be the image of the valley by John Galt from Ayn Rand's novel Atlas Shrugged. This is a subjective and debatable opinion, but we would like to cite it. Note that describing this valley, the author focuses not even on money and the rules of monetary exchange (it is believed that this novel glorifies only the concept of a liberal market economy), but on the fact that the people present in it share the concept of rational activity and conscientious development - it is easier speaking, they share common spiritual values and are at a high level of psychological development, which makes them consider spiritual values (rules and rational morality) above material ones (money, luxury).
Also, a relatively good example is the NIICHAVO society from Ponedelnik by the Strugatskys - with the amendment that it is united more by a common theme, and not by mutual interest in the individual.
Comparative analysis of systems
Comparative analysis of systems can provide a lot. For example, if you trace the typical disputes between supporters of different systems, then it often turns out that most of their arguments are based on "highlighted" and "darkened" metaphors. Market advocates will stress the efficiency of free production; geopolitics - the fact that some resources are limited and are distributed in a non-market way. In the conflict between "innovators" and "marketers" there will be a conflict - how important is a new scientific idea, and how much is its market implementation.
These effects are extremely interesting, but ... the article is already too big at this point. Therefore, we will only describe one thing.
Very conditionally, all the proposed 4 concepts can be placed in a 2x2 table. This is useful for simplifying analysis, although it makes it more imprecise.
On the left are approaches that are relatively well-known in society (traditional). On the right - much less known, the implementation of which requires the primacy of science. (Although among the readers of Habrahabr the concept of "technological explosion" and constant growth through innovations is extremely well known, I would like to note that in general people do not think about it so often) The
arrows show the conditional order of the historical appearance and dissemination of these concepts - from the most intuitive one.
Above are shown concepts that presumably satisfy rational, material values quite effectively.
As for the lower ones, it is a difficult question how to call it. We would like to focus on one non-trivial thing - often people go into politics or defend their opinions not so much because they want resources, but because they find a team there, like-minded people, and can fight for some kind of community or justice.
Uniting "us" against "outsiders" is a very powerful metaphor. She rallies. It creates a sense of spiritual kinship.
In the real image of the future, of course, it is necessary to take into account all the proposed systems - because each of them, as a metaphor, “highlights” certain objectively existing facets of human existence. We can analyze those aspects that are poorly represented in modern society - in order to understand where the balance is now shifted.
First, it is clear that the balance is shifted to the left, towards traditional systems that are more widely represented and understood. For the future, it is necessary to develop a scientific approach, and, in general, this is observed.
Secondly, which is less trivial, the balance is shifted towards the upper systems - i.e. systems of a rational plan. In modern society, the idea of the value of community, human communication, psychological support in itself, not tied to material values, is practically not highlighted. “Attention economics”, “intangible hiring incentives” are all about using emotions for the same market, not about the importance of contact in itself.
It can be assumed that in the absence of alternatives to satisfy the values of the community, people begin to use things that are intuitive to them - for example, to unite against some enemy. This is a very powerful idea that creates community - and this was described, in particular, by Eric Hoffer in the book “The True Believer. Thoughts on the nature of mass movements. " It is a pity that, as in the traditional military system, this is achieved by leveling out individual human differences.
If you try to take a psychological example, you can try to imagine the following. A certain person sees that another has littered somewhere nearby. There is a need - quite natural, even if not realized - not so much in the absence of a bank, but in taking into account the opinion of a person “I want it to be clean next to me”. You can try to solve this problem locally - through communication with friends (just support and acceptance of the imperfection of the world), through a dialogue with other people (poster "Please do not litter"). But this is quite difficult and requires not the simplest communication and support skills. Another option is that a person completely projects the need for attention and respect, unfulfilled in many places, on littering and disrespecting other people. They become "strangers", people who do not care about nature and cleanliness, as opposed to "theirs", caring.Perhaps he will become an ecologist, start demanding to take care of whales in the distant ocean and find like-minded people - although the real source of his problems is a lack of local attention and dialogue.
And, as we have already said, the problem of political solution of problems (i.e. redistribution of resources towards saving whales) is, first of all, that politics and war do not create new resources. This means that these resources will be taken from another place. The only way out of this, as we said, is a scientific approach to resource generation, which can increase their number.
Important note: ecology itself, as an idea of taking care of the world around and people, is wonderful. Certain problems begin when, on the basis of this idea, a political direction arises for the adoption of laws, the introduction of taxes, etc., which begins to compete with others for the limited resources that society gives to the state.
To summarize: the main problems are seen as an insufficient scientific approach to resources in general, and to humanitarian, emotional resources of the community in particular. If there is no clear opportunity to create community through personal communication, we will receive groups of activists who stand up for their rights simply because it meets their psychological needs.
Conclusion
J. Keynes once said [3]: “ The ideas of economists and political thinkers — both when they are right and when they are wrong — are of much greater importance than is commonly thought. In reality, they alone rule the world. Practical people who consider themselves completely immune to intellectual influences are usually the slaves of some past economist. “
Actually, we are not very free in our images of the future. We borrow them from popular literature and the world around us. No matter how we design technical systems, the bottleneck at any moment can be a person whose fantasy or philosophy is not enough to present something more complex and amazing in a holistic manner.
In an attempt to analyze our philosophy and fantasy, we, based on a number of ideas from cognitive linguistics, proposed the concept of metaphorical systems. Further, we identified 4 types of metaphorical systems - two well-known (geopolitical and market), one well-known and significant among technically oriented people (technological explosion), and one rarely used, but aimed at increasing humanitarian / psychological benefits (humanitarian transition).
These types are found in most science fiction and futuristic works. Of course, they do not cover all possible options. Significant works often offer their own, original ideas - as an example, we can take N. Gorkavy's "Astrovityanka", which shows the fork in the transition from a market society as a whole to a society dominated by clans or a society largely controlled by scientists. By themselves, the descriptions of such "joints" of systems and attempts to solve the problems arising in this case are very interesting and valuable.
This is also important because in the practical implementation of the future, it will be necessary to take into account all these systems. Each of them just "highlights" some aspects of human life - struggle, trade, creativity and knowledge, support and mutual understanding. The advent of the modern market economy did not lead to a complete abandonment of the army; also, probably, in the society of the future we will see many systems familiar to us. They will simply be in a different proportion. You will also need people who will understand that it is impossible to act only within one of the proposed paradigms - it is necessary to take them all together.
Separately, I would like to "highlight" the rarely encountered concept of "humanitarian transition". First, because in a sense she is the only person-centered, and offers a positive image of the future. It is often "obscured" due to the significant market presence in the modern world. Within the framework of the market metaphor, people-functions and people-consumers are in demand; and often other systems are adjusted to this image, which deprives a person of individuality and subjectivity - military, depersonifying "us" and "aliens", and technological, where a person can appear as a "cog in a machine." Secondly, the concept of "humanitarian transition" suggests a return to values and dialogue with the humanities. Of course, literature, philosophy, psychology have their own values - but which, unfortunately,often overlooked in modern market philosophy. We share the opinion of some psychologists that an attempt to remove a Personality, an individuality from the public space can lead to rage, all kinds of unconstructive actions and a general feeling of loss of the meaning of life.
Returning to the dialogue about the values of the humanities will not be easy (“why is this philosophy needed?”). But it is necessary for us to remain human.
There is a future. It is ambiguous, but it is possible.
Questions imagined by the author and answers to them
You say that we have to represent what we want to manage. Or maybe delegate control to AI? He'll figure it out somehow.
I'm afraid, as indicated in many examples from science fiction, AI can solve something like "If there are no people, the problem of optimizing their happiness is solved." Either we have to be clear about how AI works, or we need to tightly limit the resources it has access to. For example, even though we do not fully understand how neural networks work with the generation of texts, so far they have only the ability to generate these texts. They do not have access to serious resource optimization.
And to what metaphorical system do the post-apocalyptic scenarios relate? For example, that an asteroid will fall and life on Earth will end.
To a type 3 system - a technological explosion. In fact, this assumption boils down to one of the basic ideas of a technological explosion - there is a key natural science technology (anti-asteroid defense) that needs to be developed, while economics and politics are less important. Either it will or not - this is what is important for humanity.
But the writer N has a fundamentally different concept that does not fit any of yours!
In each case, you need to understand. So far, we can say with confidence that we cover most of the fantastic texts. Then you need to look - whether the idea is based on the path of the hero (i.e., the social system is unstable), whether there are analogues in the human past (then it will be reduced to a combination and interpretation of geopolitics and the market), and so on.
Or maybe the author of N created the original concept. This is great, it will be possible to analyze it.
S. Lukyanenko in the series "Stars are cold toys" was an example of Geometers as a socialist society of "mutual support and growth". Not the most pleasant company, I must say.
In short, there Lukyanenko describes not a society of equals, people interested in each other, but a hierarchical system of Mentors-Pupils, moreover, the former have considerable power. We would not say that such a society, consisting exclusively of Mentors and Disciples, i.e. being hierarchical, it reflects the idea of a humanitarian transition.
Notes
[1] A goal worth striving for, but which cannot be achieved within the framework of one human life. According to Turchin, a person needs this goal in order to overcome the crisis associated with the awareness of mortality, to understand that his actions and memory of him will live on after his death. (Also VF Turchin "Inertia of Fear". Part 2, Section "Definition of Socialism")
[2] A good example of such existence is given in the book by J. Diamond "Guns, Microbes and Steel" concerning the Moriori tribe (Chapter 2. History as natural experiment)
[3] Quoted from the book "Philosophers of this world" by Robert L. Heilbroner
Author: Yanvarev Vladislav - cognitivist, independent researcher, member of the Russian Association for Artificial Intelligence
Original article
PS To be honest, I apologize that the article was so long. But I just failed to put these ideas any shortly.