China is making a systematic effort to develop self-driving vehicles, with the expectation that it will eventually take over the automotive market.
China is investing heavily in self-driving cars and plans to pursue large-scale development in all aspects of this emerging segment of the auto industry - technology, start-ups, testing, regulation and implementation.
This material will be in two parts and will focus on China's self-driving vehicle strategy, the current state of affairs, use cases and an overview of key companies. Information about the leading companies will be presented in the second part.
It is useful to understand how big China has become in the automotive industry - a summary of these processes is given in the table above (compared to the US). Most of the information comes from the online version of the CIA World Factbook , which is an excellent source of data on all countries in the world.
In terms of population, China is more than four times the size of the United States, but China's growth rate is slower. China's labor force is 5 times that of the American. In addition, economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and exports and imports of each country are taken into account.
China's auto industry continued to expand even after it became the largest auto market in 2009; in 2017, more than 28 million vehicles were sold in China. Over the next two years, car sales in China declined, with a total of 24.7 million in 2019. U.S. car sales, meanwhile, have surpassed 17 million in the past five years, although numbers have dropped slightly in 2019 to 17.1 million. The American car fleet continues to grow, with 284 million cars at the end of 2019.
The number of cars in the Chinese fleet in 2019 was 234 million, and this figure is growing faster than the United States (China is likely to overtake the United States by 2024). On a per capita basis, the United States is far ahead of China, and it is unlikely that China will ever close the gap. In the US, there are 854 cars per 1000 people, while in China it is 168 per 1000.
Car sales and fleet numbers are provided by IHS Markit and include passenger cars.
The areas of the countries are very close: 9.6 million square kilometers for China and over 9.8 million square kilometers for the United States. Both countries have the same length of paved roads - about 4.3 million kilometers.
China has overtaken the US on expressways due to heavy investment over the past decade. The USA leads in the length of unpaved roads with a margin of about three times.
I have also included data on mobile phone subscribers and internet users, as well as leading Chinese companies in both categories.
In both countries, there are more mobile subscribers than the population. Data on Internet users in China comes from CNNIC.com, a resource that has conducted two extensive surveys of Internet users each year since the late 1990s.
The vast majority of internet users in China are currently surfing the web from smartphones.
Chinese strategy to create unmanned vehicles
Beijing, 2017
China is making significant efforts to become a leader in the development, testing and deployment of self-driving technologies. The main reason is that China believes it will have a big impact on its own auto industry and increase its export potential as these technologies develop.
China is looking to become an intellectual property leader in the areas of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs), self-driving vehicles (AVs) and the technologies behind them. China has a rather weak position in the field of modern internal combustion engines. To launch its own auto industry, China needed joint ventures with European, American, Japanese and Korean automakers.
China is betting self-driving technology will be a major factor in gaining control of the auto industry - along with battery electric vehicles. China unveiled its strategy for developing self-driving cars in February 2020. Eleven Chinese government departments jointly published their Smart Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy. This is an update to a project that was released in January 2018. Under this plan, smart vehicles will be used interchangeably with autonomous vehicles.
This paper presents a proposal for how China plans to develop unmanned vehicles over the next 30 years. It is available on the website of the National Development and Reform Commission. The link for the Chinese version is here .
The next section summarizes my views on the impact of this Chinese strategy. To summarize this plan, I used an article from China Law Insight .
The China Strategy is a blueprint for how China will accelerate the development of unmanned vehicle technology over the next 30 years. 11 central Chinese government departments took part in its development. The plan shows China's belief that self-driving technology will have devastating consequences for many industries. This level of engagement across departments shows that there is a clear understanding of the fact that autonomous vehicles will affect important industrial sectors (such as automotive, electronics, software, chips, cartography, transportation, telecommunications, and many others).
Addressing the upcoming changes brought about by unmanned vehicles will require coordination among Chinese government departments. The Chinese strategy focuses on a variety of technology issues, but also includes regulation, standards and the need to reformat existing transport segments.
Understanding the need for and driving these processes has come as a surprise initiative by government agencies, and bodes well for the development and deployment of Chinese unmanned vehicles.
Elements of a Chinese strategy to develop unmanned vehicles
China's self-driving vehicle strategy document covers technology, infrastructure, cybersecurity, regulation and international cooperation.
Open technology systems: The Chinese strategy encourages the creation of open systems for rapid innovation. Baidu's Apollo AV platform is a good example of this approach as it creates a large ecosystem for many companies and facilitates rapid innovation.
This includes many other technologies - architecture, self-driving and AI chips, software, software platforms (including operating systems), high-definition maps, and pinpoint technology. The importance of the development of unmanned vehicles was also noted.
Self-Driving Vehicle Infrastructure: China plans to use several technologies as infrastructure for self-driving vehicles. High resolution maps are already used by all companies in the field, including Chinese ones. However, there are many restrictions in China and only a few Chinese companies have the necessary permits to develop high definition maps. China is also underscoring its commitment to rapidly roll out 5G connectivity as part of its self-driving infrastructure. China is leading the way in 5G deployment, but it will take more than five years to catch up with current 4G coverage.
China also plans to leverage the capabilities of C-V2X in all autonomous vehicle use cases. This is a good strategy and will ultimately improve the safety of autonomous vehicles and make it easier to work on. The disadvantage of this protocol is that it relies on a large base of C-V2X-enabled vehicles to operate - preferably all of these vehicles are on the road. Deployment of C-V2X will be slower than 5G as there are currently over 230 million machines without C-V2X support. Therefore, most likely, until 2035 (and maybe later), most cars on the road will not be equipped with this system. However, smartphone replacements are happening much faster than car replacements, which means that V2P (vehicle-to-pedestrian) connectivity will be useful by 2030.The analysis of pedestrian activity is one of the most pressing problems in the field of unmanned vehicles, and the C-V2X protocol is expected to be very useful.
Integrated cybersecurity: It is noteworthy that a separate paragraph in the Chinese strategy for the development of unmanned vehicles was devoted to this issue. This means that China understands the importance and difficulties of deploying hardware and software for cybersecurity. Two important cybersecurity standards in the automotive industry are currently being developed - ISO 21434 and UN WP.29. China is expected to use or develop these cybersecurity standards.
International Cooperation: The China Strategy Document encourages domestic and international companies to cooperate in the development of unmanned vehicle technology in China. He also supports the commercialization of international companies in China. China's self-driving vehicle strategy requires standards, certification and accreditation for self-driving vehicle use cases in all regions.
Updates to laws and standards: The Chinese strategy highlights the importance of updating laws and standards for autonomous vehicles, with autonomous driving software being a priority. It should also be noted the importance of legal liability, legal issues and data management rules.
The obligations and responsibilities of stakeholders also need laws and regulation. There is a need to revise and improve Chinese traffic legislation and laws on capturing and processing maps in self-driving vehicles. With the exception of unmanned vehicle testing regulations, Chinese laws have not been adapted in terms of the new development strategy.
Timeline of Chinese strategy
The autonomous vehicle strategy report summarizes the timeline for implementing these plans. However, the report includes several goals for 2025, here are some of them:
- Large-scale production of self-driving cars, working in certain conditions, or third-level vehicles. This item also includes third-level self-driving systems being developed by several OEMs.
- Deploy Tier 4 self-driving vehicles for specific environments. This includes robotic taxis, unmanned freight and commercial vehicles. In the next article, we will look at the current state of these industries in the Chinese market.
- Comprehensive Chinese standards for self-driving vehicles, covering technological innovation, infrastructure, legislation, supervision and network security.
I would expect China's autonomous vehicle infrastructure to develop predominantly between 2025 and 2030, including automotive 5G and C-V2X.
China is a leader in most aspects of unmanned vehicle technology development and testing, including all major use cases. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit China, but to a much lesser extent than the United States and other countries. China is poised to become the largest US competitor in the field of unmanned vehicles. The development strategy document was well received in China in 2020. Startups in autonomous vehicles and related segments are seeing increased investment in the industry. Self-driving vehicle testing in China has also increased significantly over the past six months, which will be discussed in the next article.
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