Analytical company Gartner compiled the "Hype Cycle of Developing Technologies" for 2020, in which it spoke about technological trends for the next 5-10 years.
Experts analyzed more than 1,700 new technologies, which in the future can have a significant impact on business, society and every person. From this list, the agency singled out the five most significant.
1. Composer business architecture
Gartner believes that companies in the future will have to move to a more flexible architecture for building business processes. This is necessary to respond quickly to rapidly changing market requirements. Accordingly, four principles are introduced:
- Modularity.
- Efficiency.
- Continuous improvement.
- Responsive innovation.
They will be used both for business processes and for organizing employee workplaces.
Compositorial business architecture seeks to move away from traditional rigid planning in favor of flexibility. Its implementation will be facilitated by 5G networks, artificial intelligence and technologies for storing, managing and analyzing Big Data.
2. Algorithmic trust
The increase in personal information leaks, the spread of fake news and videos, and the lack of obviousness in AI decision-making are problems that need to be solved now. One way is algorithmic trust models. It might seem that blockchain is the perfect tool for verifying the legality of a product. However, Gartner believes that the blockchain only controls the information presented, not the product itself.
In theory, a situation could arise where the counterfeit was added at the place of production along with the original goods. In this case, information about its authenticity will be saved in the chain, and this data cannot be changed or deleted.
More reliable control is needed. And that's algorithmic trust. For its implementation, it is proposed to use secure access to goods and services, for example, Secure Access Service Edge. The solution to the problem of non-obvious AI solutions will be the use of responsible and explainable AI, which will report on the steps taken during the work and the criteria of the selected algorithms. Now solving problems by neural networks is akin to a black box - there is data at the input and output. Even the developer himself often finds it difficult to explain what and why is happening inside.
3. Silicon-free technologies
Moore's Law states that the number of transistors placed on an integrated circuit chip doubles every 24 months. But technology is advancing so quickly that this law has already begun to fail, as the development limit for solutions using silicon has been reached.
New solutions are now emerging where silicon is not needed. An example is quantum architectures for storing and working with data. Another option is biochemical solutions: recording information on DNA strands. Various enzymes are used to work with them. There are already two prototypes of such a biosystem, one of which is presented by Microsoft . However, so far both options are too expensive and technologically complex. This prevents their mass adoption.
Silicon-free technologies also include biodegradable sensors and carbon-based transistors.
4. Formative AI
Artificial intelligence is still in its infancy. But the tasks that have to be solved with the help of AI are gradually becoming more complicated. In order for AI technology to become a reliable assistant, qualitative changes are necessary. The increasing complexity of tasks for artificial intelligence requires a qualitative change in technology, for example, the introduction of formative AI that adapts to external conditions. There are several options - from dynamically adapting to automatically generating new models for specific tasks.
Generative AI is considered a type of formative AI. This is a technology that makes it possible to automatically create new types of content or modify existing ones. She works with texts, images, videos. Deepfakes are a classic example of this technology. Generative AI has gradually created serious reputational risks for all of us. But with it you can create new works of art, write music, make scientific discoveries.
Composite AI, differential privacy, and small data are also highlighted in this trend.
5. Human digitalization
The more advanced the IT technology, the higher the likelihood of creating digital versions of people, which has been repeatedly shown in various sci-fi films and TV series. Digital copies make it possible to exist simultaneously in the virtual and real worlds.
The business community is interested in human digitalization technologies for identification, access, payment and immersive analytics.
For example, a two-way neurocomputer interface will create a link between the human brain and a computer or cloud computing environment. This is a universal gadget or implant capable of reading an electroencephalogram and a person's mental state. In the future, it will be possible to change these parameters using electrical stimulation. In theory, it will be possible to increase the level of concentration of a person - for example, a company employee or a soldier. Another option is to influence emotions using electrical stimulation of certain areas of the brain.
Gartner warns that human digitalization is opening up new dangers. Cybercriminals will appear who will learn how to hack people's neural interfaces, using technology for their own selfish purposes.
Something else
The most visible trend that did not make the list is “digital health passports”. Due to the pandemic, the penetration rate of this technology into the market of individual countries was up to 20%. For example, in China, the Health Code mobile application must be downloaded by all citizens and tourists at the request of the government. It collects information about a person's movement and assigns a specific color to the user. Green - no risk of contracting COVID-19. Yellow - a potential danger, the requirement to observe the self-isolation regime, for example, due to moving to another city. Red - the test showed that the user was infected, or this person communicated with the infected.
India is keeping up with China. Here the Aarogya Setu application is launched, which tracks the movement and contacts of users with other people. The location-based app warns users when they are in areas where the risk of COVID-19 infection is increased, and also helps to track the symptoms of coronavirus. True, the Indians demanded to disclose the application code in order to confirm the absence of hidden surveillance and the transfer of geodata to the special services. On May 26, the developer was forced to publish the code amid protests.
Many other countries have similar applications.