DRAMeXchange experts predict a significant drop in the prices of RAM and solid state drives in the near future. The reason is the decline in demand for chips for NAND and DRAM. Accordingly, the price of such products will also begin to decline, possibly by the end of 2021.
DRAMeXchange analyzed TrendForce's SSD and RAM market report, noting falling product prices. According to experts, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the cost of goods in the "RAM and SSD" category may decrease by 10-15%.
Previously, analysts assumed that during the specified period of time, prices for memory and SSD will rise, as this has happened many times before. The market showed a cyclical rhythm - periods of falling prices were interspersed with growth. Indeed, in the first quarter of 2020, prices increased by 5%, in the next - by another 5-10%. Experts expected the trend to continue until the end of 2020.
Reasons for falling prices
Experts note that prices were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Major consumers of NAND and DRAM, fearing possible supply disruptions during quarantine, have created excess stocks of RAM and SSDs.
Manufacturers of solid state drives (SSD), USB flash drives, RAM and other elements that use NAND and DRAM chips have accumulated solid reserves in the first half of 2020. So far, these reserves have not been exhausted, so demand is unlikely to increase in the near future ...
Manufacturers did not pay attention to this situation and did not have time to quickly reduce production rates. The result is a surplus of goods. A difficult situation, most likely, will help to solve the release of consoles from Microsoft and Sony, as well as the launch of new models of Apple smartphones. But the effect will appear not earlier than the first half of next year.
What's the bottom line?
Most likely, producers will suffer losses, as it happened before. Prices for SSD and RAM are already falling, and the situation will only get worse. A significant drop in prices can be expected on the eve of the Christmas and New Year holidays. Micron and SK Hynix, the major suppliers of memory chips, have announced declining demand for their products right now.
Another factor that influences the situation is the emergence of efficient chips released using new technology. For example, 128-L NAND chipsets. SK Hynix has announced the first 1TB consumer SSD based on this technology with over 3500MB / s read speed. As a result, manufacturers of computing devices focus on new elements and systems, reducing the purchase of old ones.
The market is starting to react to the current situation, albeit slowly. In an effort to keep prices at current levels, Micro and Western Digital are slowing the pace of production of NAND and DRAM chipsets. But the stocks of already produced elements in the manufacturers' warehouses are still too large, since the decline in demand does not allow getting rid of the surplus.
As for ordinary users, they will benefit. Experts even recommend that those wishing to upgrade PC components wait for a drop in the prices of RAM and SSD, and not rush to buy.